Is the real estate market right here in Nassau County going to continue to stay on fire, or are we heading for a cliff? Stay tuned for this month’s episode of Our Market Update.
Dean Miller (00:13):
If buying or selling a home in the near future is something that’s on your agenda, you need to know not only what’s happened in the past, but the leading indicators is what’s going to happen in the future right here with the market here in Nassau County. Let’s take a look at what’s happened the last month over month and discuss what our options are. The top 10 sales in Nassau County this month were on the high side again. We look at the number one sale overall, over $20 million. When we look at numbers two through 10, little bit more or less crazy, $6.7 million, and the number 10 sale at 2.7. There’s a big range in what’s happening in the luxury market. And as you’ll see, as we go through the rest of this report, you’ll see that homes are starting to get more and more expensive, but the price range is also increasing. So entry-level, trade-up and luxury, all those numbers are shifting significantly.
Dean Miller (00:57):
Let’s go over some of the month over month numbers. So let’s compare March of this year to April of this year. There was a 7% increase in the active number of homes for sale. That’s a good sign, we’ve been talking about a shortage of inventory and that’s part of what’s driving prices up, so seeing more and more homes starting to come on the market right now, much more normal for what’s happening annually here in Nassau County, where that spring market starts to pick up. The pending listings, those homes that have come off the market, they’re officially under contract, in the process of going to closing, that number increased 2% as well. So the number’s a little bit smaller, but we’re well over 1200 homes gone pending in the last 30 days. When we look at what’s actually sold, closed, off the market, changed hands, that number is a 9% decrease month over month. So that number dropped down a little bit, partly because of the lack of inventory leading up to it during the first quarter of the year.
Dean Miller (01:47):
The numbers that everybody’s really always interested in, prices. What is the average price? Now, all of our data here is collected based on single family homes alone, no multi-families, no attached, no condos or co-ops. So our numbers tend to skew a little bit higher than those general numbers you’re seeing in the big media. That number, a 4% increase this month, so we are well over $800,000 was the average price of homes that sold. Again, that $20 million number does drag those other numbers up, but let’s look at the median number, the middle of the market. With just over 1000 homes selling, our median price is $660,000 this month, a 4% increase over March. And you look at that say, half the homes sold below that number, half sold above. When the median keeps increasing, that’s a true sign of where the market’s going.
Dean Miller (02:32):
Average days on the market is one of those numbers that we don’t discuss as often as we should. That number actually decreased 1%. We’re down to 74 days on the market. And the reason why I wanted to highlight that number this month, we hear about the multiple bidding situations, how nobody can get a house, there’s nothing available. Truth be told, there are a lot of homes out there that are priced improperly and because of that, people aren’t seeing them. So when you look at, let’s take that $600,000 median price, when you look at it, a lot of the homes that are out there that should be selling for that amount of being priced closer to 700,000, due to the fact that there are some people out there who say, “Hey, let’s take advantage of the market. If there’s some sucker out there, who’s willing to overpay that much, maybe they’ll buy our house and we can really cash out.” Don’t be that sucker, understand what the market is really telling you on a day-to-day basis.
Dean Miller (03:19):
As we circle back around, the two factors that are really driving the market the most, the months supply of inventory and the lack of it and interest rates. We actually saw an 11% increase, which is a big number, but when you hear the time you’re going to be a little bit surprised. There was an 11% increase, we now have 2.1 months supply of inventory. So I’ll reiterate what I’ve been discussing month after month. The two numbers that are really driving this frantic and crazy behavior and the media blitz that goes along with it, really focused on mortgage rates and months supply. What is months supply of inventory? That means if nothing new hit the market starting today, we would be sold out in Nassau County right now in 2.1 months. So about eight and a half weeks, there would be nothing new.
Dean Miller (04:00):
Now we go back to what we were looking at earlier, active listings is increasing, that number is going up. That’s why we had that 11% jump when we looked at 1.9 months of supply the month before. The other factor that actually went the other direction this month, mortgage rates actually decreased. Towards the end of the previous month, we did see a spike up to three and a third, national numbers right now for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage are down to about 3.2% according to bankrate.com. Check with your local lender. Here in New York and specifically on Long Island, rates tend to be a little bit higher than the national average.
Dean Miller (04:34):
So let me give you a little bit of my take. Yes, I continue to see the real estate market appreciating. I don’t see us falling off a cliff anytime soon. There’s a lot of questions about forbearance and potential foreclosures, we don’t see that being a major issue here on Long Island anytime in the near future, only because of the fact that if any of those people are unfortunate enough to have to suffer through a foreclosure, that process here in New York could take anywhere from a year to three years, depending on the situation and the lender. So I don’t see foreclosures taking over the market anytime soon. Those people who are out there looking for an opportunity to steal a house on the cheap, they’re probably going to be sitting and waiting for quite some time. And by the time they can get around to making those purchases, we do anticipate interest rates to be significantly higher than they are today.
Dean Miller (05:16):
Based on what we’re reading, based on what we’re hearing out of Washington, we do expect interest rates to start to increase continually through the end of the year. I can’t guarantee a spike of one or 2%, but we do expect to see those numbers going up, which does have an impact on buyers’ purchasing power and the affordability issues.
Dean Miller (05:35):
So if you’re thinking about making a purchase, now is the time to build your team. Understand what you truly can afford to buy, understand the state of your finances, just because you make X doesn’t mean you can buy Y, there’s a lot of circumstances that go into making a purchase. Speak to a reputable, qualified lender, understand what your situation is like, understand your buying power is and understand what you need to do with your existing finances to put yourself in a position to be secure, because finding a house and getting an accepted offer is not just the biggest part of the deal. Getting from offer, contract to closing tends to be more and more challenging in a market that’s as crazy as it is right now.
Dean Miller (06:14):
If you’re thinking of selling your home, smart sellers understand that having a plan in place is the key to their success. Go to thesellingplan.com, get a copy of our seven step How to Sell Your Home booklet, and we’ll also be more than happy to provide you with updates on homes that have sold in your neighborhood, so you can get a better feel for what things are really happening.
Average Sales Price
March 2021 – $780,544
April 2021 – $808,701
Average Days On Market
March 2021 – 75
April 2021 – 74
Average Pending Price
March 2021 – $822,547
April 2021 – $862,135
Sale to List Price Ratio
March 2021 – 98.53%
April 2021 – 98.87%
had no change 0%
Number of Sold Listings
March 2021 – 1123
April 2021 – 1025
Months Supply of Inventory
March 2021 – 1.9
April 2021 – 2.1
March 2021 – 3.33%
April 2021 – 3.20%
1. $20,100,000- 10A Dock Lane Great Neck, NY
2. $6,780,000- 107 Lake Road Manhasset, NY
3. $3,875,000- 21 Hoaglands Lane Old Brookville, NY
4. $3,650,000- 5 Gristmill Lane Great Neck, NY
5. $3,500,000- 1 Seacoast Lane Sands Point, NY
6. $3,350,000- 255 Elderfields Road Manhasset, NY
7. $3,150,000- 12 Cricket Lane Great Neck, NY
8. $2,750,000- 12 North Road Laurel Hollow, NY
9. $2,700,000- 2 Colonial Drive Upper Brookville, NY
10. $2,700,000- 26 Henhawk Road Great Neck, NY